DURUM WHEAT UPDATE – 30/01/2025
SUMMARY
After spending the majority of Dec and early Jan with a negative narrative, Australia durum has recently caught a bid, from many global buyers.
- 2024 durum crop in Southern NSW has provided great quality
- Global buyers back from the Christmas break, resulting in increased demand from;
- Italy
- Algeria
- Tunisia
- Reduction in Turkish durum being offered
- Prices have began to strengthen
- New durum variety Patron is looking promising
IN MORE DETAIL
As local and global market returns from holidays, the Australian export season begins to kick off, we note an elevated level of inquiry for export cargo across the different qualities.
In general terms the Italian markets are around USD 10/mt plus higher from the lows of the market into the Christmas break and including the last Algerian and Tunisian tenders.
Canadian export pace is hot, easily on pace for the 5 mmt export estimates in the market and with little competition for high quality and large volume today. It is hard to see what changes the competition piece today.
Italian demand is returning after a quiet period, with EU durum imports having been tracking very slowly. Data shows imports are almost 1 mmt below last year at the same time and a few hundred thousand mts below the 5 year average import pace. This points to low stocks and purchases, which is confirmed by the market.
We see no sign of Turkish exports recommencing at current values, with TMO (government) export levels resting USD 30/mt above market. Another big April / May competitor in Mexico is in dire conditions for now and the future in terms of water availability and therefore irrigated crop production, which includes Durum.
Otherwise, smaller size and quality competition exists from Greece and Russia into lower end destinations. These origins don’t compete with Canadian and to a far lesser extent Australian for main volume of business, especially the high quality.
The market had been bearish Canadian harvest / selling pressure with the farmer selling in style, but seems less so today. We remain to be convinced that the Canadians will sell all the demand for the season in this lower price range without meaningful volume or price competition from anywhere.
Locally, Western Vic and Sth East SA yields surprised to the upside, which will help with SA domestic demand coverage. There is a significant domestic program starting up from Southern NSW to Adelaide to supplement the overall low production for the state and keep the significant milling demand fed.
Viterra will soon commence loading the Sazikaya Kalon at Newcastle, followed by Geelong for 50 kmt, likely destination Algeria from December tender, which was fairly low priced.
There is some export still to flow out of Vic/Southern NSW and Newcastle. But the program looks like it will remain pretty limited vs a Southern NSW grower that is fairly well sold already.
With the market strength, Flexigrain are engaging with export buyers for various requirements across the quality spectrum and will update on program progress as we roll on.
GLOBAL QUALITY PROFILE – AUSTRALIA CURRENTLY No. 3
NITROGEN AND QUALITY TRIAL RESULTS
Several Flexi Grain clients grew AGT’s new durum variety Patron https://cdn.agtbreeding.com.au/docs/general/Variety-Fact-Sheets/SAVIC-Patron-2024-web.pdf.
Patron performed very well from a yield , test weight, falling numbers and color perspective, but it’s a tall variety which will need management for lodging. The 2024/25 Yanco NVT trial showed Patron to be the highest yielding durum, which was observed by our growers also. https://app.nvt.grdc.com.au/lty/table/wheat-durum/nsw/sw/
PATRON TEST RESULTS – CIS
Patrons plant breeder, AGT supports grower to grower seed sales via their Seed Sharing program and there is seed available bulk ex-farm, if this variety is of interest. Please reach out to your Flexi Grain Regional Manager to find out more.
Flexi Grain has aggregated adequate stocks to arbitrage local opportunities and make two export sales this year. Our Durum Pool will be closing soon, so please contact your Regional Manager if you want to contract new or additional tonnes to our durum program.
