Flexi Grain’s Export program at T-Ports’ Lucky Bay & Wallaroo is closing 29th February. Some export capacity remains available for all grades of wheat and barley*.

*Growers wanting to contract wheat and/or barley into these programs will need to confirm availability with me. 

Market liquidity remains very limited in both these sites and falling global values are not encouraging buyers to establish additional export programs.

Estimated Global Values ex SA Ports as at 20/2/2024*
 Lucky Bay/Pt LincolnWallaroo/Pt AdelaideThevenard
H2$380$380 $360

*Flexi Grain has export shipping slots booked for the second half of March and first half of April. Negotiations re export sales have commenced but nothing concluded to date meaning the Flexi Grain pool has market movement risk up until the point of selling the physical grain. In the meantime Flexi Grain is hedging both currency and futures to manage risk.  Please note Management fees ($10/mt) and carry costs are to be deducted from the final sale value.

Flexi Grain SA Strategy Notes 20/2/24

Global markets have softened driven by falling Russian and Black Sea wheat prices which have regained the mantle of being the global wheat price setter. Speculation of the Russian new crop being bigger than last year seems to have spurred the Russian government to move old stocks by lowering export prices. 

Benign South American weather, increasing Ukraine export activity and good Russian new crop prospects are creating a soft global demand environment. Concerns over the condition of the Chinese economy and Chinese new year celebrations are also incentivising buyers to defer purchases for the time being. The Russian new crop prospects are pressuring prices for ASW and APW type grades in particular whilst prices for H1 and H2 type grades are holding. 

Comfortable global supply estimates and an absence of any pending production concerns at the moment are suppressing global and local prices.

US inflation concerns are persisting as US consumer prices rose more than expected in January. This suggests the US Reserve will probably hold interest rates at current levels for longer than expected before easing them later in the year. This development should keep the Australian dollar under some pressure against the US dollar. 

  • Call Sam Grieve 0400 688 515 for more details or to contract grain.